Industry Trend Analysis - MTS Return Will Drive Growth Higher - AUG 2017


BMI View: The return of MTS to Turkmenistan's mobile market will raise growth rates in every year leading up to 202 1 . However, this development is contingent on two factors: MTS remaining , and being able to expand in the market and ongoing developments at TM Cell ( Altyn Asyr ) - which we expect to continue investing in network developments and expanding its back office capacity. There are ongoing public discussions regarding the potential privatisation of Altyn Asyr. BMI believes developments at the state-owned operator are subject to considerable uncertainty, given recent political interference. However, investment and reform would potentially increase growth rates throughout the medium term. Turkmenistan's fixed-line market is underdeveloped, with low penetration though it has higher penetration than some of its neighbouring markets. Underinvestment and the increasing reliance on mobile rather than fixed are the main causes of this slow trajectory.

Mobile

We believe the mobile market grew by 14.6% in 2016 to reach 6.97mn subscribers. Looking ahead, BMI believes the return of MTS will ensure market growth every year to 2021. We forecast mobile subscriptions will grow by 11.6% from end-2016 to end-2021, reaching 7.8mn subscribers and a penetration rate of 135.3% at the end of 2021, in line with rates in neighbouring markets.

Industry Trends - Mobile
2015-2021 (2015-2021)
f = BMI forecast. Source: BMI, Operators

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