Industry Trend Analysis - Market Subdued But M&A Opportunities Still Present - MAY 2017

BMI View: Our core view remains that there will be little consolidation within the European telecoms market in 2017, because of the stance of the European Commission. However, some opportunities still remain, and we expect Liberty Global to be at the centre of any activity, as part of its convergence strategy.

We do not expect major M&A activity in Europe in 2017, because of regulation. The European Commission, which will be investigating the majority of any new deals, has ruled against consolidation, especially in the mobile market, which would have reduced the number of players from four to three. The UK and Denmark are two examples, and Italy, which was successful as the merger of 3 and WIND was predicated on the entry of a new player, will not be replicable in many other countries. However, we believe some limited opportunities remain, and we focus on three in this piece:

  • Liberty Global, as it looks to add mobile capabilities to its fixed footprint;

  • O2 Has Greater Scale Than Vodafone
    German (LHC) And UK (RHC) Mobile Market Shares (%), 2016
    Note: German data from Q416, UK data from Q316. Source: BMI, operators

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