Industry Trend Analysis - Macron's Main Impact On TMT Sector To Be On The European Front - JUNE 2017

BMI View: For the TMT sector, t he election of Emmanuel Macron to the French Presidency w ould have most impact at the European level. His vision aligns with Germany's, with the removal of the UK providing another positive for further integration. His manifesto is less ambitious domestically, adhering closely to existing initiatives that have already been factored into our forecasts, regardless of whether he takes a more open-minded approach to consolidation .

Our core view for the forthcoming French Presidential elections is that Emmanuel Macron will be elected (see ' Election Primer - Macron Victory Will Provide Boost To Moderates Across EU ' , March 10 2017). Having been the Economy Minister in charge of "Le French Tech" initiative, Macron's election manifesto discusses telecoms, media and technology (TMT) at length, ranging from infrastructure, the use of data and technology in the public sector (for example open data, health, justice), to the role of European institutions. We believe it is in the latter field that his Presidency would have the most impact.

Macron believes in greater European integration, and this is evident in the TMT aspect of his manifesto, with three main measures regarding the evolution of the sector at a European level:

  • Potential Consolidation To Have Limited Impact
    France Telecoms Forecasts, 2015-2021
    e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: BMI, operators, Arcep

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