Industry Trend Analysis - Challenges To MTN's Dominance To Have Limited Impact - APR 2018

BMI View: Recent regulatory developments in Ghana will help operators and other entities compete more effectively with MTN. But given its established position in both the mobile and MFS sector, we do not believe they will be enough to displace the market leader.

A second 4G spectrum auction and mobile money interoperability are positive developments, but given the limited impact of 4G services so far, as well as the entrance of banks into mobile financial services (MFS), it will not be enough for Vodafone and Tigo/Airtel to displace MTN.

MTN had a 47% share of the mobile market at the end of Q317, compared to 24% for Vodafone and 26% for the newly merged Tigo/Airtel, and is the only mobile operator licensed to offer 4G services in Ghana (see 'Airtel-Tigo Deal Prelude To Orange Entry', March 6 2017). Moreover, we estimate MTN accounts for more than 70% of total mobile money subscribers. The market leader is also set to inject over USD144mn during 2018 in network improvements and value-added services for voice and data services, which cementing its superiority.

3G Services Will Continue To Drive Growth
Industry Forecast - Mobile 2016-2022
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: BMI, operators, regulator.

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