Economic Analysis - Research Highlights: Emerging Market Megatrends, Saudi Shake Up - JAN 2018


Over the past month, we have published the usual combination of rapid response analysis to major near-term developments and 'future gazing' at potential long-term scenarios. With regards to near-term events, developments in Saudi Arabia and the conclusion of China's19th annual Communist Party Conference have provided significant opportunity to distil key implications for clients. With regards to long-term trends, we held a webinar on 'The World In 2030' in October ( available online), assessed the trajectory of the rapidly evolving global energy market and highlighted hotspots for future global infrastructure development, among many other topics.

Emerging Market Megatrends

We laid out our long-term views on the evolution of emerging markets in October. We hosted a webinar on 'The World In 2030', which included our view on which countries would grow fastest, which are most at risk from instability and which new industry hubs would emerge. In addition to these 'megatrends', we also published our extremely popular quarterly 'EM Key Themes Chartpack', with new near-term trends relating to an inflation rebound and rising protectionism. Finally, we mapped out the rocky road ahead for many Caribbean states after a particularly harsh series of hurricanes. There is significant risk of a credit event in the worst affected markets such as the US Virgin Islands and several members of the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union. Political risks are largely contained, though Puerto Rico may be an exception.

Commodity Exporters Stuck In The Slow Lane
Five-Year Annual Average Real GDP Growth Forecast, %, 2018-2022
Source: BMI

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