Company Trend Analysis - White Spot Project A Minor Boost For Tunisie Telecom - FEB 2018

BMI View: Tunisie Telecom will see some organic growth in its userbase as it will be the exclusive operator to previously unserved customers. Despite this, new customers are likely to be low-value ' no-frills ' customers so the medium-term profitability of the proje ct remains questionable and is one only a state-owned player could take on.

Tunisie Telecom has been awarded a contract to deploy 3G and 4G networks to previously uncovered areas. This contract was awarded by the Ministry of Communication Technology and the Digital Economy as part of the government's ' Tunisia Digital 2020 ' strategy aiming to promote socio-economic development, so the ministry will provide TND46mn (USD18.3mn) in funding. The areas Tunisie Telecom will serve cover a population of about 180,000.

We expect these pockets of new customers to give Tunisie Telecom's subscriber base an organic growth boost. This would be beneficial as it has been cannibalised progressively by rivals Ooredoo and Orange, but will not change market dynamics dramatically. As Tunisia has approached saturation, multi-SIM ownership declined and disconnection of inactive SIMs have led to volatile growth in recent quarters. As a result, growth in the mobile market has been focused in migration to 3G and 4G plans.

Few Organic Growth Opportunities In Saturated Market
Tunisia - Mobile and 3G/4G Forecasts
f = BMI forecast. Sources: Operators, INT, BMI

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